شوية كلام واقعى، بعيدا عن نغمة الأحباط اللى بنجلد بيها نفسنا حبا فى تعذيب الذات ، وبعيد ايضا عن نغمة "كله تمام" الحكومية، الكلام مش من مصدر مصرى ومنقول عن تقارير البنك الدولى، وعذرا لمن لا يجيدون الإنجليزية لاننى فى الوقت الحالى لأ امتلك الوقت الكافى للترجمة، لو تفضل احد الأعضاء ممن يملكون الوقت والمهارة للترجمة يكون مشكور:
Egypt's economic growth rate could contract to 3.2 percent this year and the country's pound would see a moderate depreciation relative to the U.S. dollar, a leading Cairo-based investment bank said Tuesday _ even as the country's finance minister continued to voice optimism about the ability of the Arab world's most populous nation to withstand the global economic meltdown.
In a research note released Tuesday, Beltone Financial analysts said while they "strongly believe the fundamentals of the Egyptian economy are solid," the impact of the government's stimulus efforts may not be quick enough to buoy the economy.
As a result, real economic growth is expected to average 3.2 percent in fiscal 2008-2009 and slide to 2.4 percent in the following fiscal year, the report said.
The revised projections came a day after Egyptian Finance Minister, in a note of optimism, was quoted in local newspapers as saying he believed GDP would rebound to between 7 and 9 percent after the current global meltdown is over. But he didn't say when he expected that recovery to begin, or when Egypt would realize those growth rates.
Egyptian officials _ with analysts echoing _ have repeatedly said the country is well positioned to weather the current economic slump. They have cited ample liquidity in the banking sector and a diversified economic base, as well as low consumer and corporate debt levels as evidence of the economy's strength.
Even so, Egypt faces daunting challenges, with about 20 percent of its 78 million residents living below the poverty line of $2 per day, according to the World Bank.
The global meltdown has already pushed economic growth down to 4.1 percent in the second quarter of fiscal 2008-2009, and is expected to squeeze key sectors like the Suez Canal and tourism.
Many Egyptians worry that drop will only deepen after a French teen was killed in a bombing Sunday night at a Cairo tourist hotspot.
The attack _ the first targeting tourists in the country in three years _ left another 24 wounded at a plaza fronting the 650-year-old Khan el-Khalili bazaar. It raised concerns among many Egyptians that it may further cut already declining tourism revenues.
Analysts, however, have downplayed that prospect, saying that the impact would be short-lived, especially compared to how the global crisis will affect the sector.
"Had the incident occurred at a time when there was a boom in tourism arrivals, we believe that there could have been a bigger impact," the Beltone report said.
"While we expect growth to dip in the short term due to the drop in private domestic and external consumption, we believe the country will be able to rebound from the low growth levels as soon as the global economy shows signs of a recovery," it said.
The report said the Egyptian pound could drop slightly to about 5.80 per dollar by the end of 2009, pulled down by an expanding current accounts deficit and a drop in revenues from foreign currency earners.
Analysts argue the Egyptian government's $2.7 billion stimulus plan could help the country push through the crisis. But declining revenues from key sectors like tourism _ which brought in $10.8 billion in the last fiscal year _ will make the average GDP growth rate of 7 percent realized in the past couple years a wistful memory for some time
المفضلات